Fundamental View of USDJPY Pair


Earlier on Wednesday, during a news conference, BOJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida stated that the central bank has no immediate plans to sell its large holdings of exchange-traded funds (ETFs). He also reaffirmed that the BOJ’s monetary policy is not intended to manipulate currency rates. He however declined to comment on U.S. President Donald Trump's remarks on Monday criticizing Japan and China as intentionally weakening their currencies.
                     For the rest of the week, the economic calendar will be full of important events that could drive major market movements. Important indicators were released from the US side for today. At 5:15 pm GMT +4, the ADP Non-Farm Payrolls Change report was released, which fell sharply below expectations, falling from 186 thousand jobs to 77 thousand jobs, which is less than the expectations of a decline to 141 thousand jobs. At 6:45 pm GMT +4, the final services PMI was released, followed shortly after by the ISM services PMI, both indicators rose, contrary to expectations of a decline.
On Thursday, markets will turn their attention to the U.S. Weekly Unemployment Claims, a key indicator of labor market health.
Finally, on Friday markets attention would be shifted to the U.S. Jobs Report for February, a crucial release that could set the tone for future Federal Reserve policy decisions.
These data points have the tendency to drive markets hence causing volatilities, accompanied with potential risk and reward.

 

Technical View of USDJPY Analysis


The USD/JPY remains supported around the key 149 level, acting as a strong barrier. In the previous session, the pair briefly dipped to 148.09, but buyers pushed it back toward the 149 zone.
A decisive break below this critical support could be triggered by a fresh market catalyst. Given the upcoming high-impact news releases in the cause of the week, if the United States dollar losses momentum further, bears could take advantage of this, hence driving the pair toward 147.36, followed by the 145 psychological level. Further downside pressure could see a move toward the 142 zone.
Conversely, if the U.S. dollar strengthens, the USDJPY pair could rally, with bulls targeting 151, a level where price previously faced rejection. A successful break above this resistance could open the door for a push toward 154.
Breakouts beyond these levels remain possible, depending on market dynamics. Meanwhile, the RSI sits at 38.24, just above the 30 oversold thresholds, suggesting there is still room for downside movement before testing overbought conditions. For now, the market remains relatively quiet, awaiting the next catalyst.

 

Fig 1: USDJPY 1D Trading View