ANALYSIS OF USDJPY

Since late October, the U.S. dollar has shown a bullish trend. Recently supported by the election outcome and other fundamental factors. However, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) recently cut the federal funds rate by 25bps on Thursday 7th Nov., this was anticipated by the markets, causing a slight pullback in the dollar's value.

At the time of writing, the dollar index is trading at 106.092, reflecting a 0.22% gain on the day. This recent rally followed a significant retracement, which found support at the 61.8% Fibonacci level, aligning with 104.157 on Thursday 7th of November, 2024, in the wake of FOMC rate decision.
The recent peak of 106.205 has surpassed the high of 106.130 from Wednesday, June 26. The price is now consolidating around this level, with a potential target set at the April high of 106.517. Other things being equal, technical analysts anticipate a retracement before the next upward move.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF USDJPY
The Gopher has seen bullish momentum driven by dollar strength following the election of a Republican president. On the 6th of November, the pair gained around 342 pips, rising from 151.285 to 154.710, marking a 2.24% increase. At the time of writing, it is trading around 154.92 and has encountered resistance near 155.207 after surpassing the recent November high of 157.710, which was crated on Tuesday 6th of November, after the U.S election results. Technical analysts anticipate a brief pause or retracement before the next move. Additionally, the RSI has reached overbought territory, suggesting that sellers may step in, potentially pushing the price down toward 153.70, the 50% Fib retracement level. If the price tank further and closes below 152.162, the next potential target would be 151.340 as per technical analyst.

Fig.1 USDJPY tradingview 4H

UPCOMING CATALYST 
Looking ahead this week, markets are focused on the release of key U.S economic data. Today, Wednesday, November 13th at 5:30 pm GMT+4, both Core CPI and CPI data will be published. On Thursday, November 14th, also at 5:30 pm GMT+4, the release of Core PPI and PPI figures is expected alongside weekly unemployment claims. Wrapping up the week on Friday at 12 am, the Fed Chair will participate in a panel discussion titled "Global Perspective," hosted by the bank of Dallas. Later on, Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales data will be released, with a consensus of 0.3% expected, compared to previous readings of 0.5% and 0.4%. These event and economic indicators have the potential to influence market movement, with much focus on the USD pairs.