XAUUSD, Time frame: 4H, Tools: SMA 100XAUUSD, Time frame: 4H, Tools: SMA 100

Technical Analysis of Gold

The attached chart shows that gold prices continue to move within a downtrend, despite rising by 1.2% last week. The following points confirm the current bearish trend:

  1. Gold continues to form successive lower highs and lower lows.
  2. Gold continues to trade below most moving averages, both short-term and long-term, particularly the 100-period SMA.
  3. Prices continue to move within a descending trendline connecting a series of successive lower highs.
  4. Gold's continued trading below the previous high near 4,230 further confirms the bearish trend.

In conclusion, the attached chart confirms that the downtrend is likely to continue as long as prices remain below the 4,230 resistance level. A break above this level is necessary to shift the outlook to a bullish one.

Fundamental Analysis of Gold

US inflation data this week, particularly Wednesday's release, will undoubtedly have a significant impact on price movements, as it will provide clues about the Federal Reserve's monetary policy in the coming period. Although the likelihood of an interest rate hike in October has declined, the possibility of another rate increase before the end of this year remains almost certain, especially given expectations that inflation will rise to 3.6%, compared with the previous reading of 3.4%.  

We conclude with the following question: Will gold manage to reverse its course by breaking above the 4,230 resistance level, or will the downtrend continue?