AUDCAD, Time frame: 4HAUDCAD, Time frame: 4H

The pair has rebounded strongly from the 0.9720–0.9750 macro support area, reclaimed the blue moving average, and is now consolidating around 0.9885. However, price has yet to break above the lower resistance zone between 0.9900 and 0.9920.

From a macro perspective, the Australian dollar continues to benefit from a policy rate advantage over the Canadian dollar. The RBA cash rate stands at 4.35%, while the Bank of Canada's overnight rate is at 2.25%, providing a positive carry backdrop for AUD.

The main counterweight remains oil prices, as elevated energy prices tend to support CAD and could complicate a clean bullish breakout in AUD/CAD.

Key levels

Resistance

The 0.9950–1.0000 region continues to act as a major overhead resistance zone, as highlighted by several previous rejection points (red arrows). A decisive break above this area would strengthen the bullish outlook.

Support

The highlighted macro support zone below continues to define the downside floor. Previous tests of this area have triggered strong rebounds, reinforcing its importance within the broader market structure.

Momentum

The RSI has cooled from overbought territory and is currently holding above the 50 level. This keeps the recovery intact, but bulls will need renewed momentum and a move higher in RSI to confirm further upside continuation.