What to Watch Across Markets This Week: July 15, 2024

• Trump's rally incident, could potentially sway stock markets
• Markets expects weakness in the U.S. Retail Sector
• The UK has seen inflation decreasing steadily since the beginning of the year
• ECB expected to maintain the rate at 4.25% following the recent 25 basis point cut.

Trump Rally Incident Shakes Markets

Saturday's incident at former President Trump's rally could have a strong influence on the stock market. Investors believe his chances of winning the upcoming election have increased. Markets reacted with a stronger dollar and higher U.S. stock futures. The prospect of a Trump presidency has traders expecting more aggressive trade policies and relaxed regulations on issues like climate change and cryptocurrency. Since the event, Bitcoin has risen by about 8%, continuing this upward momentum.

Upcoming Earning Releases this Week

What to Watch This Week

This week, significant events are unfolding with anticipated milestones in the U.S. and UK, alongside the European Central Bank's upcoming interest rate decision. Let’s take a deeper look: 

The U.S.

On Tuesday, July 16, 2024, the Retail Sales data m/m is scheduled to be released by the Census Bureau at 4:30 PM, GMT+4 (Dubai Time). The market expects a decrease from the previous month's 0.1% to -0.2%. If the data meets expectations, it would mark the lowest level since February 15, 2024, signaling weakness in retail activity. This trend could potentially lead to a decline in the value of the U.S. Dollar, according to analysts' assessments.

The UK

On Wednesday, July 17, 2024, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-on-year inflation data will be released. The market anticipates a decrease from the previous 2.0% to a projected 1.9%. With inflation steadily declining in the UK since the beginning of the year, meeting or surpassing this expectation could intensify pressure on the Bank of England (BOE) to consider rate cuts.

Europe

On Thursday, July 18, 2024, the European Central Bank (ECB) will announce the Main Refinancing Rate at 4:15 PM GMT+4 (Dubai Time). Market expectations suggest the ECB will likely maintain the interest rate at 4.25%. This decision allows the Eurozone to absorb the impact of last month's first 25 basis point cut since 2019, amid ongoing uncertainty in the inflation trajectory.