SNB Interest Rates Analysis: Preview of Swiss national Bank meeting in December 2025

The Swiss National Bank’s strategy is a hot topic, with a Bloomberg survey of economists conducted November 28-December 4 predicting a 93% chance that the SNB will stick to its policy at its upcoming December meeting.  The bank has been consistently communicating that it is dedicated to a monetary policy that ensures price stability, with an inflation target range of 0% to 2%.

Economic challenges affecting Swiss National Bank interest rate decision

The bank's biggest challenge is that the economy just suffered its first quarterly contraction in more than 2 years, which can be attributed to large US tariffs. Given that Switzerland is an export-driven economy, any appreciation in the currency poses a risk to trade and inflation.  

Swiss Franc Technical Forecast Current Technical Structure

  Source Trading view USD/CHF 1D  

Policy Divergence Risk

USD/CHF currency pair currently finds itself trading in a well-defined range that has been the price action for most of the third and fourth quarters of 2025. This prolonged range indicates the lack of conviction among traders regarding a set direction. As the year ends, a breakout to either side of the range will bring back clear trends for the new year, and much conviction for trend followers.

Are SNB’s negative rates an option?

The SNB policy makers have made their position clear regarding the policy tools they can use. Officials have consistently stated that bringing back negative interest rates is unlikely, acknowledging the challenges that low interest rates pose for pension funds and could harm the Swiss financial system by reducing banking profits.    

Key technical levels of USD/CHF:

Current Technical Structure:

Resistance Zone:  0.8130-08150 (upper boundary of consolidation range) Support zone: 07850-07900 (lower boundary of consolidation range)

The daily chart shows a prolonged consolidation phase from March highs near 0.8800. After selling pressure around 0.7850 in June. The pair has been range-bound for about six months, trading between clearly defined levels of support and resistance.

A market waiting for a catalyst

The technical consolidation suggests market indecision, and traders await a catalyst for momentum to push the price in the next direction. The SNB and Fed decisions can be the catalyst with the potential to break the pair out of the range.

Bottom line

Markets are questioning whether current conditions have moved the SNB interest rate decision close to the point where extraordinary measures might become necessary. Traders are hoping the upcoming rate decision will provide the answer.