Last Week of 2025 Economic Outlook: Global Economic Growth Put to Test | Latest economic reports December 2025

As 2025 nears its end, global financial markets undergo a delicate phase of profit appetite and cautious anticipation of key economic reports to be released.

For US inflation numbers don’t only reflect current price increases, but they also set the tone for next year’s monetary policy, and they determine whether markets will leave this year on a positive or a negative one.

Among economies at a turning point this week besides the US are Europe, Japan, and China, with each facing their own challenges.

Europe is battling an unstable growth, Japan’s monetary policy is at a critical phase, and major structural pressures are facing the world’s second-largest economy. In this article, join us in a journey of analyzing anticipated economic data releases and their possible effects on global markets as 2026 kicks off.

With precious metals gaining renewed momentum this week, readers interested in the broader outlook may also want to explore our latest deep-dive on gold. In our new Gold Forecast for the End of 2025, we break down why both gold and silver are approaching all-time highs and what the current macro backdrop suggests for price trends going forward.

Key takeaways:

• Markets brace for US growth data.
• European caution of growth numbers.
• Japan to release the minutes of its October central bank meeting.
• China faces real estate pressures and investor challenges.

Economic Impact of 2025’s Last Week on Financial Markets

1. The US economy: Growth numbers lead the show

This last week of 2025 is a week where investors look to cash in their profits after a very bullish year. Despite a rocky start this December, key economic indicators came in better than expected, including labor and inflation data, giving markets a thread of hope for further interest rate cuts in 2026’s meetings. This will encourage market indicators to perform at good levels next year.

Since 1950, the main US stock market index has shown a 1.3% increase during the last five trading days of the year and the first two days of the new year, which will be put to the test with the release of the upcoming growth and consumer confidence data.

This week, the US’ first reading of 2025’s Q3 GDP will be released with preliminary readings of 3.2%, down from 3.8% last quarter.

As for the US Consumer Confidence reading, it is expected to rise to 91 from 88, which might be explained by the easing down on trade tariffs and trade turbulence, in addition to durable goods and industrial production data.

2. The EU economy: A critical GDP report awaits

The EU’s economy is still in a cautious state of closely observing inflation, growth, wages, and financial data in order to determine how well the economy is performing after a turbulent year and a long period of economic uncertainty.

Economic data releases will be few during the last week of 2025 for Europe except for the latest estimated reading of third-quarter growth, with GDP previously recording 1.3% year-on-year.

On December 30, Spain’s preliminary inflation reading will be released. While France, Germany, and the Eurozone will have the final readings of manufacturing PMI indices put out, as well as data from Spain and Italy on January 2.

3. Japan’s economy: The domestic market’s last test

The Bank of Japan will release the minutes of its October meeting, where it kept interest rates unchanged. These minutes of meeting will give hints regarding interest rate decisions for the coming year, as the bank started hiking rates starting at this month’s meeting, raising it by 0.75%.

Additionally, Tokyo’s December CPI report will be released, among other key economic indicators, including retail sales and industrial production. This will be the closure the Japanese economy awaits after a year of economic turbulence locally and US tariffs that negatively affected Japanese exports.

4. China’s economy

The real estate crisis in China continues to worsen despite falling housing prices, making it a huge strain on the Chinese economy, especially as the real estate sector constitutes a third of the country’s economy. This has led to pressure on other sectors in the Chinese economy, including cement and steel, and weighed on China’s overall economic outlook.

Simultaneously, the Chinese government reaffirms its openness to foreign investments and trade deals, clearly shown during the recent Central Economic Work Conference held in Beijing.

China’s industrial profit data up to the beginning of the year will also be released, though it remains well below the healthy levels seen more than three years ago.

Economic Calendar for the last week of 2025: