World Gold Council's key outlook for the second half of 2026

Attention is turning to gold in the second half of 2026 as uncertainty continues to surround the global monetary policy outlook and geopolitical developments. According to the latest report from the World Gold Council (WGC), gold is expected to trade within a relatively stable range around $4,100 per ounce over the coming months. However, the potential for further gains remains if economic or geopolitical risks intensify.

The Council believes that gold could rise toward $4,500 per ounce, with the potential to reach $5,000 per ounce under more optimistic scenarios. This outlook is supported by three key drivers: rising geopolitical and economic risks, a shift by central banks, particularly the US Federal Reserve, toward a more accommodative monetary policy, and continued growth in long-term institutional investment in gold.

Official sector demand also continues to provide structural support for prices, with central banks maintaining strong gold purchases averaging more than 1,000 tonnes annually since 2022 as part of their efforts to diversify reserves and reduce reliance on the US dollar. The report also highlights growing interest from sovereign wealth funds, pension funds, and insurance companies, reinforcing long-term demand for the precious metal.

On the other hand, several factors could limit gold's upside potential, most notably the continued strength of the US dollar, the possibility of interest rates remaining elevated for longer than expected, and improving investor appetite for risk assets, all of which could reduce demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.

Technical outlook on gold price movements

Figure: XAUUSD, H4, TradingViewFigure: XAUUSD, H4, TradingView

From a technical perspective, gold continues to trade within a well-defined downtrend on the four-hour timeframe, with prices recording a series of lower highs since May. The descending trendline continues to cap upside attempts, confirming that sellers remain in control of the broader trend.

Although the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has formed a bullish divergence between the two most recent lows, signaling weakening bearish momentum and the possibility of a recovery, this signal has not been sufficient to reverse the prevailing trend. Gold has so far failed to break above the descending trendline or establish a higher high, leaving the broader technical outlook under pressure.

Currently, gold is approaching a test of the descending trendline around the $4,170–$4,200 area, which represents an important technical resistance zone. A decisive close above this region could pave the way for a move toward $4,300, followed by a retest of the $4,450–$4,500 area if supported by favorable fundamental developments.

On the downside, failure to break above the descending trendline could trigger renewed selling pressure, with prices potentially declining toward $4,050, followed by the key psychological and technical support around $4,000, particularly if the US dollar remains resilient or market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts continue to fade.

Overall, gold's direction in the coming period will remain closely tied to the outlook for US monetary policy, the performance of the US dollar, and geopolitical risks. These factors will determine whether prices can finally break the current downtrend and resume their broader upward trajectory, as per analyst analysis.