Global markets rose on Wednesday, with the dollar hovering near a three-year low of 96, as investors considered the increasing likelihood of US interest rate reduction and the push for trade agreements ahead of President Donald Trump's July 9 tariff deadline.

Meanwhile on the radar, the U.S. official Job report would be on the wire later this week and as always, market participants would keenly pay attention to the reading which would give critical gauge of the labor market strength vis a vis the health of the economy. In view of the upcoming report, a strong report could reinforce confidence in the economy while a mixed print may reignite concerns over the slowing growth.

What to watch: economic events impacting gbp/usd in july

July is filled with significant economic events and data that could cause volatility in GBP/USD. Some important economic data prints to keep an eye on are listed below: Later this week, the U.S. official job report would be on the wire for the month of June, followed by the minutes of the FOMC meeting on the 9th and the important CPI inflation data on the 15th. In the UK, the annual CPI inflation reading is set for July 15, and the monthly GDP report is anticipated on July 11. On July 17th, data on average earnings and the change in unemployment will come next. Then to wrap up the month, the UK PMI releases is expected to be published on July 24 and retail sales data on July 25.

Together, these events—and any surprises—could significantly influence GBP/USD price action throughout the month.

GBP/USD forecast: key factors driving the pair in july 2025

GBP/USD is expected to be influenced by a combination of fundamentals, technical levels, and market sentiment in July.

On the fundamental side, key economic data releases will be closely watched, alongside the growing focus on central bank policy divergence between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. Additionally, shifts in global sentiment, Middle East tensions, and trade-related headlines may trigger safe-haven flows that impact the pair. From a technical perspective, analysts anticipate a potential rebound following the recent test of a 44-month high at 1.3788. Key levels to monitor include support around 1.3588–1.3469, and resistance near 1.3788–1.3800. A breakout from these zones could define the direction of the next major move.

GBP/USD technical outlook

GBP/USD pair tested 1.3788 on Tuesday, its highest level since 1st of November 2021(approximately 44 months). However, the bears struggled to push prices before the close of the day.

Looking at the daily chart, the broader market structure remains bullish with price bouncing off the trendline multiple times hence acting as a dynamic support.

The pair is currently retracing, with potential target towards 50 level of the Fib. at 1.3588 which would likely act as a minor support, whereas a break below the 50 level would likely usher sellers to the next potential target around 78.6 level of 1.3469. Meanwhile, a break below 1.3380 would mean absolute BOS and then would signal that bearish momentum has prevailed hence sellers would potentially target 1.3176.

On the flip side, if bulls regain control near the trendline or within the Fibonacci zones, the key upside target remains the previous high at 1.3788, followed by a push toward the psychological 1.3800 barrier according to analysts. Breakouts in either direction remain possible in the coming weeks, especially amid heightened volatility and key macroeconomic drivers.

Fig. 1 GBPUSD 1D, tradingview

 

 

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