What to Watch Across Markets This Week: 1st July, 2024

• French stocks rebound, due to election results
• U.S. markets will have shortened hours on July 3rd and be closed on July 4th, but major key data will still be released

France’s Election Results Dominate Global News

French stocks rebounded on Monday morning after the first round of the country’s snap election suggested a potential hung parliament, where no single party has a clear majority. This result is seen as positive for European assets, as it lowers the risk of extreme policy changes that could negatively affect businesses and the economy. Investors generally perceive this as creating a more stable and favorable environment for European investments. The second round of voting is scheduled for July 7, 2024, with an absolute majority being an unlikely outcome.

Key Upcoming News to Watch for

In the upcoming week, the U.S. will observe a half-day of trading on July 3rd and remain closed on July 4th. Despite the shortened trading period, there will be significant news developments to follow. Let's explore them further:

The US data releases will kick off Monday morning with the ISM manufacturing report due to be released at 6:00 PM, GMT+4 (Dubai Time), anticipated to indicate a slight expansion in the industry sector for June, rising to 49.2 from May's 48.7.

Next, the JOLTS job openings data is scheduled for release on Tuesday, July 2, 2024 at 5:30 PM GMT+4 (Dubai Time). Job openings have been on a gradual decline since the beginning of the year, with market expectations pointing to a drop from 8.06 million to 7.86 million. This suggests ongoing weakness in employment figures. Analysts predict that such an outcome could lead to a potential depreciation of the U.S. Dollar.

On Wednesday, July 3, 2024, at 10:00 PM GMT+4 (Dubai Time), the FOMC Meeting Minutes will be released. It is anticipated that the Federal Reserve may reiterate existing views, focusing on the latest inflation data from May and indicating that their efforts to combat inflation are ongoing. The market expects the first rate cut to potentially occur by the end of 2024.

The U.S. concludes the week with the release of the Non-Farm Employment Change on Friday, July 5, 2024, at 4:30 PM GMT+4 (Dubai Time). Expectations point to a notable decrease from 272,000 to 189,000, a level not seen since November 2023, indicating labor market weakness. Such an outcome could potentially lead to a decline in the value of the U.S. Dollar, as per analyst analysis.